今日电解铝概念股“云铝”及“天山铝业”双双创历史新高

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing a complex situation with a significant drop in spot prices, a slight rebound in futures, and a rise in aluminum concept stocks, indicating a clash between short-term adjustments and long-term positive factors [9] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 30, the international aluminum market rose slightly to $2969 per ton, while domestic futures showed mixed performance, with the main 2602 contract closing at 22565 yuan per ton, up 0.13% [1] - The spot market saw a substantial decline, with prices in the Yangtze region dropping by 310 yuan per ton and in Guangdong by 320 yuan per ton, reflecting weak demand from downstream buyers [1][2] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The significant drop in the spot market is attributed to a seasonal demand slump and high aluminum prices, leading to reduced purchasing intentions among downstream enterprises [2] - Downstream leading enterprises are operating at only 60.8% capacity, indicating a decrease in demand across various sectors [2] Group 3: Macro Factors - Uncertainties in overseas policies, particularly comments from former President Trump regarding the Federal Reserve, have created market concerns, although the direct impact on aluminum prices is limited [3] - Positive domestic economic indicators, including a rise in major stock indices and expectations for increased infrastructure investment, are providing strong support for aluminum prices [4] Group 4: Inventory and Cost Analysis - Short-term inventory pressures are evident due to stable production capacity and improved shipping conditions, leading to an increase of 44,000 tons in aluminum ingot and rod inventories [5] - Long-term support for aluminum prices is expected due to relatively low inventory levels compared to last year and stable production costs, with a cost support level estimated at around 20,000 yuan per ton [5] Group 5: Company Insights - Yun Aluminum Co., as a leader in "green aluminum," benefits from lower production costs due to its reliance on hydropower, allowing it to maintain profitability even at lower aluminum prices [6] - Tianshan Aluminum's integrated business model across the aluminum supply chain enhances its risk resilience, allowing it to offset losses in one area with profits from another [6] Group 6: Market Outlook - In the short term, the aluminum market is expected to face pressure with prices likely to fluctuate between 22,000 and 23,000 yuan per ton due to weak demand and inventory accumulation [7] - The medium to long-term outlook is optimistic, with anticipated demand growth from infrastructure investments and the rapid development of the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries, potentially raising aluminum prices to a range of 24,000 to 26,000 yuan per ton by 2026 [8]