有色市场偏空氛围浓厚，铸造铝承压下行

Group 1 - The main futures contract for casting aluminum alloy (2603) showed weak fluctuations, closing at 21,475 yuan, down 105 yuan, with a decline of 0.49% and an increase in trading volume to 9,685 lots [1] - The average price for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) was reported at 23,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan, while other grades like A380, ADC12, ZL102, and ZLD104 also experienced price declines [1] - The macroeconomic environment has seen a significant release of optimistic sentiment in precious metals and non-ferrous sectors, leading to substantial price reductions, while the rebound of the US dollar index and a broad decline in global stock markets further dampened market risk appetite [1] Group 2 - The current price of ADC12 remains firm, providing some support against price declines, while high scrap aluminum prices and tight supply continue to affect the recycled aluminum industry [2] - Alloy plant operating rates have decreased, and with the 2026 subsidy policy phase-out and seasonal demand fluctuations in the automotive sector, alloy demand is expected to weaken [2] - Overall market transactions are primarily driven by essential needs, with limited incremental demand despite some pre-holiday replenishment activities [2]