“逼空”行情突遭反杀！贵金属高台跳水，2026年白银还能跑赢黄金吗？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 2026 is expected to be a significant year for commodities, with gold and silver prices remaining high but experiencing increased volatility [1][3]. - Silver prices have surged approximately 150% over the past year, while gold has risen about 70%, with a notable drop in the gold-silver ratio from 120 to around 60 [1][5]. - The recent spike in silver prices is attributed to a "short squeeze" phenomenon, driven by speculation and concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on silver [1][2]. Group 2 - The CME announced an increase in margin requirements for silver futures, which has dampened speculative sentiment in the precious metals market [2][3]. - Historical precedents indicate that frequent margin increases can lead to significant price corrections, as seen in 2011 when silver prices fell sharply after similar measures [2][3]. - Analysts suggest that while silver remains bullish in the long term due to structural demand, short-term volatility is expected, with key price levels to watch being around $60 and $70 [3][4]. Group 3 - The supply of silver has not kept pace with demand, leading to a structural shortage, exacerbated by geopolitical factors and a lack of new mining projects in major silver-producing countries [5][6]. - The market for silver is less liquid than that for gold, with a significant portion of silver being held in ETFs, further tightening available supply [5][6]. - The cost of borrowing silver has surged to historical highs, leading to increased demand for physical silver and driving prices higher [5][6]. Group 4 - Gold prices are expected to remain strong, with forecasts for 2026 predicting prices around $5,000, supported by central bank demand and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][7]. - Emerging market central banks are strategically increasing their gold reserves, with significant purchases noted from countries like Poland and Kazakhstan [7][8]. - The potential for private investors to diversify into gold could further elevate prices, as current ETF holdings are at a historical low compared to previous peaks [7][8].