波动年代里的系统化赢家：趋势与风险控制正在重写收益曲线

Group 1 - The global market is entering a phase of "normalized volatility," with increased frequency and amplitude of fluctuations in exchange rates, interest rates, commodities, and equity assets, leading to more "tradable trend segments" and "structural mispricings" [1] - Macro hedge funds are believed to be in a stronger performance window since 2008, as macro uncertainty rises and cross-asset correlations change, creating fertile trading conditions for macro and systematic strategies [1] - Systematic capabilities are transitioning from being exclusive to hedge funds to becoming a core allocation for asset management giants, exemplified by BlackRock's efforts to reshape its flagship quantitative/systematic platform [1] Group 2 - In overseas markets, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) recorded over 150% annual returns in 2020 but faced approximately -60% annual drawdown in 2022, highlighting that while "high returns" are not rare, the true scarcity lies in controllable drawdowns and risk exposure [2] - In the Chinese market, "≥50%" return samples are more concentrated in index enhancement and quantitative long/combined quantitative systems, with reports indicating that several quantitative private funds achieved over 50% performance in certain samples [2] - In 2021, statistics showed that the number of quantitative products with annual returns exceeding 50% reached double digits, with notable firms like Jiankun Investment and Ningbo Huansheng Quantitative appearing on the billion-yuan private equity earnings list [3] Group 3 - A new generation of systematic teams emphasizing "risk engineering" is emerging, focusing on lower drawdowns and higher quality returns, rather than creating hype through extreme single-year performances [4] - Qi Chen Quant (QC Quant) emphasizes a strategy framework that is "institutionally understandable," aiming for smoother return curves through disciplined position management and execution optimization, achieving a 90.66% return in the first half of 2025 [4] - The combination of "low drawdown + high return" is a highly sought-after attribute by institutions when selecting systematic managers, indicating that the true rarity lies in achieving smoother and more sustainable return curves under controllable drawdowns and explainable risk exposures [4]