【专题报告】从历史经验看年末铂钯行情

Group 1 - In 2025, precious metals experienced a significant price surge driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical events, supply-demand mismatches, and market sentiment, surpassing most initial expectations [2][21] - Platinum prices rose dramatically from $1,664 per ounce at the beginning of December to a peak of $2,478.5 per ounce, marking a nearly 50% increase [2][21] - Palladium prices followed platinum's trend, increasing from a low of $1,422.5 per ounce to $1,959.7 per ounce, with a volatility of approximately 37.6% [2][21] Group 2 - The current macroeconomic landscape is reminiscent of the 1970s oil crisis, with nations competing for core resources and geopolitical conflicts driving up commodity prices [8][27] - The demand for platinum and palladium is influenced by their applications in hydrogen energy and other renewable sectors, similar to the historical significance of oil [9][28] - Supply constraints due to geopolitical tensions and infrastructure limitations in producing countries have led to a structural shortage in the platinum market since 2023 [11][34] Group 3 - According to WPIC, platinum supply is expected to decline by 2% in 2025 to 222 tons, primarily due to reduced output from South Africa, Russia, and Zimbabwe [11][31] - Global demand for platinum is projected to decrease by 5% to 243 tons in 2025, with industrial demand particularly affected by tariffs and rising raw material costs [11][31] - For palladium, supply is forecasted to decrease by 3.4% to 272.6 tons in 2025, with demand also declining by 2.1% to 273.1 tons, resulting in a slight deficit [12][35] Group 4 - The outlook for 2026 suggests a potential balance in the platinum market, with supply expected to increase by 4% to 230 tons, while demand may decrease by 6% [11][34] - The palladium market may still face supply shortages, but the gap is expected to be smaller due to increased recycling and a slowdown in automotive demand [12][36] - The overall recovery in platinum group metals prices is improving the outlook for mining companies, with potential for increased production and profitability [13][33]