长江有色：30日锡价暴跌 全线抛售看跌浓厚现货谨慎询盘

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing significant price declines due to a combination of macroeconomic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and changes in supply and demand dynamics [2][3]. Market Performance - The Shanghai tin contract 2602 saw a substantial drop, opening at 334,200 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 336,740 CNY/ton, and a low of 316,730 CNY/ton, ultimately closing at 326,330 CNY/ton, down 16,010 CNY, or 4.68% [1]. - The trading volume for the main contract was 441,256 lots, with open interest decreasing by 6,392 lots from the previous day [1]. Supply Dynamics - Supply is showing signs of recovery, with increased imports from the Democratic Republic of Congo and improved exports from Myanmar and Indonesia, despite ongoing geopolitical risks [3]. - Domestic and international social inventories are accumulating, indicating a loosening of the previously tight supply-demand balance [3]. Demand Dynamics - High tin prices are suppressing downstream profits, leading industries such as solder to adopt low inventory strategies, resulting in weak market transactions [3]. - Traditional consumer electronics are entering a low season, while demand from emerging sectors like AI servers and new energy is not sufficient to offset the overall cyclical decline in demand [3]. Short-term Price Outlook - The cautious macro sentiment is expected to guide the tin market towards further price declines in the short term, as profit-taking by bulls contributes to downward pressure [4].