“逼空”行情突遭反杀，贵金属高台跳水，2026年白银还能跑赢黄金吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp declines in silver and gold prices, with silver dropping approximately 7% and gold about 4%, are attributed to increased margin requirements set by the CME, leading to a significant reduction in speculative sentiment in the precious metals market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver and gold have seen substantial price increases over the year, with gold up about 70% and silver up around 150% [1]. - The gold-silver ratio has dramatically decreased from a high of 120 in 2020 to around 60 currently, primarily due to a "short squeeze" phenomenon [1]. - The leasing interest rate for silver has surged to 5.9% for one month, annualized at nearly 70%, indicating a speculative-driven market rather than fundamental support [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Silver's structural scarcity and its dual role as both a financial hedge and industrial raw material are leading to a revaluation in the market [3]. - The demand for silver has consistently outstripped supply for five consecutive years, exacerbated by declining ore grades and environmental restrictions in major silver-producing countries [4]. - Geopolitical concerns, particularly the potential for U.S. tariffs on silver, have led to significant stockpiling and a depletion of inventories in key markets like London [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience increased volatility in 2026, with potential price support levels identified at $60 and $70, while a deeper correction could see attention at around $50 [3]. - Analysts remain bullish on silver's long-term prospects due to its essential role in technology and renewable energy sectors, despite short-term speculative excesses [6]. - The outlook for gold remains optimistic, with predictions for prices around $5,000 in 2026, driven by structural demand from central banks and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][7].