投资进化论丨ETF、LOF的溢价率变高了，还能入场吗？

Core Viewpoint - Recent increases in trading prices of certain ETFs and LOFs in the secondary market have led to rising premium rates, prompting questions about the feasibility of entering the market at this time [1] Group 1: Causes of Premium - Premium arises primarily from the supply and demand dynamics in the secondary market, applicable only to funds like ETFs and LOFs that can be traded on exchanges [2] - These funds have two prices: the net asset value (NAV) calculated daily by the fund company, representing the true intrinsic value, and the market trading price determined by investor supply and demand [2] - When demand for a fund significantly exceeds supply, its trading price can rise above its NAV, resulting in a premium [2] - Premium rates can vary; for instance, a fund with a unit NAV of 1 yuan trading at 1.1 yuan has a premium of 0.1 yuan, equating to a premium rate of 10% [2] - Historical data shows that premiums are not uncommon, especially in QDII ETFs, with rates typically ranging from 2% to 5%, and extreme cases reaching over 43% [2] Group 2: Risks of High Premiums - Investing in high-premium ETFs or LOFs carries two main risks: value regression risk and NAV decline risk [3] - Value regression risk indicates that market prices will eventually align with NAV, and high premiums may lead to losses if market sentiment cools [3] - NAV decline risk suggests that entering the market at high premiums exposes investors to both emotional premiums and potential declines in NAV, leading to compounded losses [3] Group 3: Perspective on Premium Phenomenon - High premiums reflect market sentiment and short-term supply-demand imbalances, with potential for rapid price corrections if sentiment shifts [4] - The emergence of premiums also indicates growing investor interest in overseas and commodity assets, suggesting a diversification in asset allocation strategies [4] - ETFs and LOFs serve as convenient asset allocation tools, with their trading rules differing from traditional funds, leading to greater volatility and rapid premium adjustments [4] - Investors are advised to remain calm and assess value and risk rationally when premiums deviate significantly from normal ranges [4]