金价反弹挑战4520阻力 市场聚焦FOMC纪要寻求方向

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a significant drop of 4.5%, marking the largest single-day decline since October, primarily due to the CME raising margin requirements for gold and silver futures, which triggered profit-taking and position adjustments [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - During the European session on December 30, spot gold saw a slight increase, reaching $4,380 per ounce before stabilizing around $4,360 [1] - The previous day's drop was attributed to the CME's increase in margin requirements, leading to widespread profit-taking and portfolio adjustments, which intensified short-term volatility [2] - Analysts suggest that the potential for further declines in gold prices may be limited due to expectations of the Federal Reserve entering a loosening cycle by 2026, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [2][3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold trading showed a positive trend, remaining above the critical 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), indicating a sustained bullish outlook [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around the midline, suggesting a potential for further consolidation or a brief pullback in the short term [4] - Key resistance is identified at the upper Bollinger Band around $4,520 per ounce, with a successful breakout potentially leading to tests of historical highs at $4,550 and psychological levels at $4,600 [4] - Initial support is concentrated in the $4,305-$4,300 per ounce range, with a failure to hold this level possibly extending the correction towards the December 16 low of $4,271 [4]