博时宏观观点：风险偏好上行，成长有色有望占优

Group 1: Global Economic Overview - The US Q3 2025 GDP growth rate is 4.3%, significantly above market expectations, with consumer resilience and AI investments contributing one-third of this year's growth [10] - Japan has passed a large-scale fiscal budget plan for 2026, leading to a rapid increase in Japanese bond yields to 2.11%, which has exerted some pressure on the US dollar index due to yen appreciation [10] - The domestic industrial profit decline has widened in November, with a slight month-on-month increase in profit margins after adjusting for high base effects, but still weaker than seasonal trends [10] Group 2: Market Strategy - The bond market experienced narrow fluctuations from December 22 to 26, with a steepening curve; liquidity easing has improved short-term performance, while long-term remains volatile due to concerns about the post-year-end market [11] - The A-share market has seen a continuous rebound due to the resolution of structural differentiation and positive signals from the Central Economic Work Conference, alongside a strengthening yuan [11] - The Hong Kong stock market is currently in a phase of benefiting from liquidity while facing weak fundamentals, with the improvement of the price level in 2026 being crucial [11] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The alcohol beverage and black metallurgy industries are dragging down overall profit growth, while the recovery in export growth is benefiting sectors like computer communications, automotive, electrical machinery, and specialized equipment [10] - The technology growth sector is expected to outperform as the crowding effect eases, although further recovery in PPI and profits is still awaited [11] - The oil market is under pressure due to weak demand, continuous supply release, and inventory accumulation [12]