2026年全球原油价格将低于65美元 | 界面预言家⑤

Group 1: Oil Market Overview - In 2025, the international oil market experienced a downward trend due to supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical disturbances, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices averaging a decline of 13.9% and 13.6% respectively compared to the previous year [2][6] - The first half of 2025 saw significant volatility, with oil prices dropping from around $75 per barrel to approximately $55 per barrel due to trade wars and economic recession fears, followed by a brief recovery due to diplomatic negotiations and Middle Eastern conflicts [2][3] - The second half of 2025 was characterized by a weaker oil price trend, influenced by increased production from OPEC+ and expectations of oil inventory accumulation, leading to a narrowing of price volatility compared to the first half [3][6] Group 2: Future Price Predictions - Multiple institutions forecast that in 2026, global oil supply surplus pressures will become more pronounced, with average Brent crude prices expected to range between $50 and $65 per barrel [8][10][13] - Citigroup predicts that Brent crude will average $62 per barrel in 2026, while Goldman Sachs estimates a lower average of $56 per barrel, citing a significant supply surplus of approximately 2 million barrels per day [8][12] - The overall sentiment indicates that oil prices will likely continue to decline due to weak demand growth and increased supply, with geopolitical factors adding uncertainty to the market [10][14] Group 3: Natural Gas Market Overview - In contrast to the oil market, the international natural gas market saw price increases in 2025, driven by a tight supply-demand balance and extreme weather conditions [15] - The average price of U.S. HH futures rose by 53.29% year-on-year, while European TTF futures and Northeast Asia spot prices also experienced significant increases [15] - Analysts predict that the global natural gas market will transition from a "tight balance" to a "loose" state in 2026, with an influx of supply expected to exert downward pressure on prices [16][18] Group 4: Seasonal Price Trends in Natural Gas - In early 2026, the market may face seasonal pressures as the Northern Hemisphere heating season ends, with prices expected to stabilize or slightly decline [19][22] - During the second and third quarters, demand for heating will decrease, but summer cooling demand may provide some support, although overall prices are anticipated to decline due to increased LNG supply [20][21] - By the fourth quarter, prices may stabilize as storage replenishment for winter heating begins, but overall levels are not expected to exceed or match those of 2025 [22][23]