高位盘整的磷酸一铵：政策、成本、需求三方角力，后市怎么走？

Group 1: Core Insights - The domestic monoammonium phosphate market is transitioning from a cost-driven price increase to a high-level consolidation under strong policy guidance, influenced by policy regulation, cost support, and demand dynamics [1][5] - Policy measures include a combination of export control, supply stabilization, and raw material adjustment, aimed at stabilizing market fluctuations and preventing drastic price changes [1][5] - The export suspension policy effectively locks domestic resources, alleviating supply pressure before the spring plowing season, while mandatory operational rates ensure stable market circulation [1][5] Group 2: Cost Factors - There is still support from the cost side, but different raw material trends have shown divergence, with overall stability and slight easing [2][6] - Phosphate rock companies have ample orders, but regional supply constraints are prominent, particularly in Guizhou and Hubei, leading to tight overall supply and stable prices [7] - Sulfur prices remain high, with limited import volumes expected in January 2026, while domestic prices may see slight adjustments due to policy guidance [7] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The demand side exhibits a "short-term weakness + medium-term support" characteristic, with the focus of negotiations on procurement timing and price expectations [2][7] - As of December 19, the compound fertilizer industry's capacity utilization has dropped to 37.75%, the lowest in five years, with many companies having sufficient inventory for short-term production needs [8] - The observed demand weakness is not indicative of a complete demand shrinkage but rather a postponement based on policy and price expectations, suggesting potential recovery as the spring planting season approaches [8] Group 4: Market Outlook - In the short term, the monoammonium phosphate market is expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation pattern, with policy price constraints and rigid cost support creating a balance [4][9] - Future market direction will depend on three core variables: raw material price trends, demand release timing, and the effectiveness of policy implementation [4][9] - Downstream compound fertilizer companies may continue to adopt a just-in-time purchasing model to avoid high inventory costs, while raw material price fluctuations could impact market sentiment [9]