GTC泽汇资本:金银资产迎结构性重估

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely monitoring whether the strong momentum in gold and silver prices, which reached historic highs by the end of 2025, can continue into 2026. GTC ZEHUI Capital observes that current investor concerns revolve around whether this is a short-term emotional surge or a deeper structural shift [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The current market situation is characterized by a profound structural transformation, redefining the core role of precious metals in global asset allocation. Hard assets are no longer marginal hedging tools but have become strategic necessities in asset portfolios [1][4]. - A key turning point for the gold market can be traced back to 2022, when changes in the global monetary landscape prompted emerging market central banks to reassess the safety of their asset reserves. This led to a significant influx of central banks into the gold market for reserve diversification [1][4]. - Central banks' buying behavior is distinct from that of ordinary investors, as they are less sensitive to price fluctuations and are driven more by long-term policy directions and strategic considerations regarding domestic and international situations [1][4]. - Many central banks still have historically low gold reserve ratios, indicating that this policy-driven buying will have strong sustainability. This underlying demand from central banks provides a solid long-term floor for gold prices, offering core support even amid speculative fluctuations [1][4]. Group 2: Silver Market Insights - GTC ZEHUI Capital believes that the true awakening of the silver market began in the summer of 2025. Strong industrial demand over the past five years has pushed global above-ground silver inventories to warning levels [2][5]. - The silver supply chain is currently under extreme pressure, with specific grades and locations of physical supply unable to quickly meet the surge in investment demand. High leasing rates in the silver market further confirm the structural tightness rather than short-term volatility [2][5]. - As industrial demand continues to strengthen, silver is expected to gain long-term fundamental support similar to that of gold. The market is anticipated to transition from "explosive growth" to "structural steady growth" in 2026 [2][5]. - Although gold prices may not replicate the remarkable increases seen in 2025, GTC ZEHUI Capital expects a steady return of 10-15%. For silver, while volatility may be greater, each significant pullback is viewed as a healthy market reset rather than a trend reversal [2][5]. - The shift from a traditional 60/40 investment portfolio to one that includes up to 20% hard asset allocation has become a consensus among institutional investors. GTC ZEHUI Capital believes that 2025 solidified this structural recognition, making 2026 a key year for investors to deepen their positions and strengthen confidence in hard assets [2][5].