FXGT:比特币减半规律的存与废

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is at a critical juncture, with intense debate over whether the "four-year cycle" has become obsolete, as Bitcoin transitions from a fringe asset to a global macro hedge asset, fundamentally altering its operational logic [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The institutionalization process is identified as the primary driver breaking the cycle, with continuous buying from spot ETFs providing a deep liquidity cushion, contrasting sharply with the previous retail-driven "boom and bust" patterns [4]. - Macro policy easing and global liquidity expansion are emerging as new engines for market trends, with Grayscale data indicating that Bitcoin's macro hedge attributes are becoming more pronounced due to ongoing fiat currency devaluation pressures [4]. Market Sentiment - Despite the shift, there are still voices advocating for the cycle theory, with some institutions noting that the market's trajectory by the end of 2025 exhibits typical bear market characteristics, reflecting the complexity of market psychology [2][4]. - Long-term holders are engaging in preemptive selling based on memories of market trauma from 2021, which may suppress prices in the short term but does not necessarily indicate the long-term validity of the four-year logic [2][4]. Future Outlook - Investors are advised against blindly applying past halving schedules, as the rise of AI and strong performances from traditional safe-haven assets like gold indicate that competition for capital in the crypto market has entered a phase of both stock and flow [5]. - The cycle may not be broken but is being elongated and redefined, suggesting that future opportunities will be more hidden in value reassessments following market fluctuations [5]. - The year 2026 is highlighted as a critical window for validating the new order, necessitating a more inclusive analytical framework that prioritizes policy direction, institutional holding costs, and liquidity trends over halving timelines [5].