Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-30 12:29Core Viewpoint - The yellow feather chicken market in 2025 experienced a "roller coaster" with significant losses in the first half, followed by a rapid recovery in prices after August, leading to a potential balance between profit and loss for the year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The market faced a downturn in the first half of 2025, with prices hitting a low of 11.8 yuan/kg in July, and companies like Wen's Foodstuffs (温氏股份) reported a sales average of 10.29 yuan/kg in June, a 24.78% year-on-year decline [1][2]. - August marked a turning point, with prices increasing by over 20% month-on-month, allowing profitability to return, with profits of 3-4 yuan per chicken reported [2]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The industry is witnessing a polarization trend, with small farmers exiting the market while leading companies continue to grow rapidly. For instance, Wen's Foodstuffs and other listed companies reported significant increases in chicken sales, with Wen's selling 1.194 billion chickens, a year-on-year growth of 8.55% [3]. - The concentration of the industry is expected to increase, with leading companies projected to maintain a growth rate of around 10% in 2026, driven by cost advantages and a "company + farmer" model [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry is anticipated to shift from "cyclical speculation" to "value growth," with a focus on fresh and processed products as key growth areas. Price recovery is expected to be moderate, supported by supply adjustments and steady demand [3].