TrendForce集邦咨询：下调2026年全球笔电出货预估至年减5.4% 降至近1.73亿台

Core Viewpoint - The rising prices of memory chips are significantly impacting the profitability and pricing flexibility of laptop brands, leading to a downward revision of global laptop shipment forecasts for 2026 by TrendForce, projecting a 5.4% year-on-year decline to approximately 173 million units [1][2]. Group 1: Market Forecasts - TrendForce has revised the 2026 global laptop shipment forecast to 172.9 million units, down from a previous estimate of 178.5 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.4% [2]. - If memory prices do not stabilize by the second quarter of 2026, there is a risk that the overall laptop shipments could decline by as much as 10.1% for the year [2]. Group 2: Brand Resilience - Brands that maintain long-term, stable relationships with major memory suppliers and have a higher proportion of business and mid-to-high-end products are better positioned to withstand the current memory price increases [2]. - Apple, for instance, is expected to leverage its integrated supply chain and pricing power to adjust its product line effectively despite rising memory costs [2][3]. Group 3: Product Launches and Market Dynamics - Apple plans to launch a 12.9-inch model in spring 2026, targeting the entry to mid-range price segment, which could attract consumers if supply chain efficiency and pricing remain favorable [3]. - Lenovo, as the largest laptop vendor, may face MSRP increases but can utilize its scale and mature supply chain to manage cost pressures and potentially gain market share [3]. Group 4: Impact on Display Panels - The increase in memory prices is expected to negatively affect the shipment momentum of laptop panels, with a projected decline of about 7.9% in 2026 [3]. - LCD panel shipments are anticipated to suffer due to reduced laptop demand and increased penetration of OLED panels, while OLED panel shipments may still grow but could face challenges in consumer purchasing willingness due to cost reflections [3].