黄牛暂缓收购，Labubu二手市场价格大跳水

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand market prices for Labubu series blind boxes from Pop Mart have significantly dropped, leading to widespread discussion and concern about the brand's future and pricing strategy [1][3]. Price Decline - The price of the Labubu "Sitting Party" plush series, originally priced at 594 yuan, peaked at over 1400 yuan in July but has now fallen to around 630 yuan; single blind boxes that sold for 99 yuan are now trading as low as 60 yuan, below the original price [3]. - Hidden variants of Labubu have also seen drastic price reductions, with one variant dropping from 46,000 yuan to approximately 480 yuan, a decline of over 98% [5]. Market Dynamics - The number of Labubu listings on platforms like Xianyu has increased, but the average transaction price has decreased to 83.5 yuan since June [5]. - Discount promotions in physical stores, including 50% off and "buy one get one free" offers, have been observed, with some unsold items priced as low as 29 yuan [7]. Company Performance - Labubu, a key IP for Pop Mart, achieved over 100 million units sold in 2023, making it the fastest-growing IP for the company [8]. - The company's stock price has dropped over 40% from a high of 339.8 HKD in August to 190.8 HKD by December 30, resulting in a market capitalization loss exceeding 200 billion HKD [11]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that Pop Mart is transitioning from explosive growth to a phase of sustainable growth, with revenue growth for Labubu expected to slow significantly by 2026 [11]. - The increase in monthly production capacity from 10 million to 50 million units is viewed as a primary factor contributing to the collapse of second-hand market prices, indicating a potential risk to the brand's perceived scarcity and desirability [8].