Will It Be Easier For First-Time Homebuyers to Jump into the Market in 2026?

Core Insights - The housing market remains challenging for first-time homebuyers, with conditions expected to persist into 2026 [1][6] Housing Market Conditions - High housing costs and elevated interest rates are significant barriers for first-time homebuyers, with only 21% of homes sold between July 2024 and June 2025 going to this group, the lowest share since 1981 [2][5] - The average age of first-time homebuyers has risen to 40 years, reflecting the need for longer saving periods and limited inventory [2][4] Mortgage Rates and Affordability - Mortgage rates are projected to decline modestly in 2026, averaging around 6%, an improvement from 6.26% in late 2025, but still high [7][9] - Despite a slight decrease in mortgage rates, home prices are expected to rise by about 4% in 2026, maintaining affordability challenges for first-time buyers [8][9] Sales Projections - Home sales are anticipated to increase by approximately 14% in 2026, driven by pent-up demand and life events, which may further fuel competition and keep prices elevated [8][12] - The National Association of Realtors indicates that affordability issues for first-time homebuyers are unlikely to improve significantly in 2026 [9][10] Life Events Impacting Purchases - Significant life events such as weddings, job relocations, and family changes are expected to drive home purchases, despite ongoing affordability challenges [12][13] - There is a notable pent-up demand among potential buyers, with 52 million Americans in their thirties still not owning homes [12][13]