如何避免新兴负债群体，掉进以债养债循环

Core Insights - The personal debt market in China is undergoing a significant transformation in 2025, characterized by a balance between expanding compliant credit channels and blocking high-interest gray areas to prevent risk spread [1][2] Policy Dynamics - The policy framework is becoming clearer, focusing on promoting consumption and encouraging moderate debt through consumer loans, which have seen a 30-40% increase in applications without a significant rise in bad debt rates [2][3] - New regulations have effectively closed off high-interest lending avenues, particularly those with annual rates exceeding 24%, leading to a consensus in the industry that compliance is essential for long-term growth [2][3] Market Challenges - Despite overall market normalization, short-term pains persist, with the emergence of a structured black market for "professional debtors" who are often unaware of the risks involved [3] - Debt restructuring services are also proliferating, often embedding high service fees and hidden clauses that can lead borrowers into deeper debt [3][5] Emerging Debt Groups - The concept of "emerging debt groups" has surfaced, consisting of individuals with stable jobs and incomes who fall into liquidity crises due to overly optimistic future expectations and poor financial planning [4][5] - Statistics indicate that the debt rate among individuals born in the 1990s is as high as 78.3%, with an average debt of 121,000 yuan [5][6] Positive Developments - Regulatory efforts are being made to clean up gray areas, with the China Internet Finance Association conducting industry self-checks to eliminate high-interest lending practices [7] - The People's Bank of China has introduced a credit repair policy to help individuals restore their credit efficiently, indicating a shift towards a healthier credit ecosystem [7][8] Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the expectation is that credit resources will increasingly flow towards genuine needs, fostering a healthier and more transparent credit environment [8] - The 24% interest rate cap is seen not only as a protective measure but also as a catalyst for financial institutions to focus on risk control and service improvement, allowing individuals to access "good debt" at reasonable costs [8]