英镑兑欧元触及两个月高位 走强势头有望延续

Core Viewpoint - The British pound has reached a two-month high against the euro and remains stable against the dollar, influenced by the upcoming Bank of England meeting and market expectations regarding monetary policy [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The pound rose to 87.03 pence per euro, marking its largest increase since mid-October, although the gain was just over 0.1% [1]. - The pound held steady at 1.3518 against the dollar, slightly below the three-month high reached last week [1]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The Bank of England's recent decision to lower interest rates, albeit with a cautious approach, is expected to keep the pound strong against other currencies, particularly the dollar, as the market anticipates continued easing from the Federal Reserve [3]. - Major Wall Street banks, including Morgan Stanley, UBS, and RBC, predict a bullish outlook for the pound against the dollar, forecasting it could reach between 1.43 and 1.51 by 2026, potentially hitting the highest level since the 2016 Brexit referendum [3]. Group 3: Divergent Views - Goldman Sachs maintains a neutral stance, suggesting that the pound's upward momentum may stall around 1.35-1.36, citing a weakening labor market and expected declines in overall inflation [4]. - Wells Fargo holds a bearish view, predicting a significant rebound for the dollar and a decline in the pound to around 1.31, indicating ongoing uncertainty in future exchange rate movements [4].