2025香港楼市复盘：房价租金齐回暖

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong residential market is experiencing a long-awaited "volume and price increase" in 2025 after years of price adjustments, with both property prices and rents recovering simultaneously. The outlook for the market in 2026 is generally optimistic among market institutions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong secondary private residential price index reached 297.3 points in November, marking a 0.92% increase from October and the highest level in nearly 16 months, with a cumulative increase of 3.77% over six consecutive months [2]. - The rental index has risen for 12 consecutive months, with an annual increase of approximately 4.26%, reaching a historical high of 200.7 points [2]. - The number of residential transactions in Hong Kong approached 57,000 in the first 11 months of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of about 16%, while property prices rose by approximately 3% and rents by about 4% [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing the Market - The easing of housing policies has prompted some buyers to accelerate their market entry decisions, while the global interest rate decline and strong performance in the Hong Kong IPO market have contributed to improved market sentiment [3]. - The phenomenon of "supply exceeding rent" is becoming more common, with rising rental yields encouraging mainland buyers to invest in the Hong Kong market [3]. - The synergy from lower transaction and loan costs has stimulated housing demand, with rental yields exceeding loan rates, enhancing the financial attributes of the Hong Kong real estate market [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The residential market is expected to see a significant recovery in 2026, with projected price increases between 5% and 8% according to international real estate consultancy Knight Frank [5]. - J.P. Morgan forecasts a further rebound of about 5% in Hong Kong property prices by the end of 2026, supported by pent-up demand, declining interest rates, rising rents, stable interest from mainland buyers, and a recovering financial sector [5]. - The ability of local purchasing power to sustain the market will be a key factor influencing the trajectory of the Hong Kong real estate market in 2026 [4].