美联储2026大变局：鲍威尔时代落幕？利率路径充满变数！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is approaching a challenging 2026, with mixed economic signals prompting debates among officials and the potential nomination of a new chair by Trump [1][9] Economic Indicators - The November employment report indicates economic weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% and only 64,000 jobs added [2][10] - Strong consumer spending and investments in artificial intelligence are driving overall GDP growth, which may mitigate labor market risks and reduce the justification for rate cuts [2][10] Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - Trump is finalizing his nominee for the new Federal Reserve chair, as Powell's term ends in May [11][13] - Potential candidates include Chris Waller, Kevin Warsh, and Kevin Hassett, with Hassett being viewed as the most likely choice [11][12] Market Concerns - Investors are worried that Hassett, as a Trump ally, may advocate for aggressive rate cuts, potentially undermining the Fed's independence [3][12] - The confirmation of any nominee will require Senate approval, where the Republican majority may influence the process [13][14] Future Vacancies - Trump may have opportunities to fill additional vacancies on the Federal Reserve Board, which could further shape the Fed's direction [15] - The recent approval of regional Fed chair appointments for the next five years alleviates some market concerns regarding the influence of Trump's nominees [16][8]