瑞士12月KOF经济领先指标升至逾一年高位

Economic Outlook - The Swiss economy shows slight improvement due to reduced US tariffs and a somewhat better global situation, with the KOF economic leading indicator rising 1.7 points to 103.4, the highest level since September 2024, exceeding market expectations of 101.4 [1] - The positive trend is particularly evident in the production sector, with manufacturing indicators indicating a favorable outlook, although private consumption and foreign demand indicators remain under pressure [1] Sector Performance - Within the productive industries (manufacturing and construction), most sub-indicators, including employment prospects, intermediate product inventories, and overall business conditions, are showing positive development [1] - However, sub-indicators related to production activity and order backlogs are weakening, and the food and beverage producers, as well as the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors, are experiencing weak performance, slightly limiting the overall optimistic outlook [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The Swiss government has revised down its economic growth forecast for 2026, primarily due to high US tariffs, projecting a growth of 1.3% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026 [1] - Recent easing of overall trade uncertainties and expansionary fiscal policies abroad are beneficial for the Swiss economy and may support exports, leading to a moderate improvement in economic prospects [1] Monetary Policy - The Swiss National Bank maintains its policy interest rate at 0%, the lowest among major central banks, in light of the economic outlook and persistent low inflation [2] - Previous high tariffs have negatively impacted economic growth, while safe-haven capital inflows during trade turmoil have strengthened the Swiss franc, making imports cheaper and further suppressing inflation [2]