美元迎2017年以来最大年度跌幅 明年或进一步走弱

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is experiencing its steepest annual decline since 2017, with predictions from Wall Street banks indicating further weakness in the dollar as the Federal Reserve continues its rate-cutting measures [1][6]. Group 1: Dollar Performance and Predictions - The dollar has fallen by 9.6% against a basket of major currencies this year, with the euro rising nearly 14% to above $1.17, a level not seen since 2021 [1][6]. - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates 2 to 3 times by the end of 2026, while other major central banks, including the European Central Bank, may maintain or even raise rates, contributing to further dollar depreciation [6][2]. - Predictions suggest that by the end of 2026, the euro-to-dollar exchange rate could rise to 1.20, and the pound-to-dollar rate could increase from 1.33 to 1.36 [2][6]. Group 2: Impact of US Economic Policies - The weakening dollar has benefited US exporters but has negatively impacted many European companies with sales in the US market [6][2]. - Concerns about the potential influence of President Trump on the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair could lead to further dollar declines if the new appointee is perceived as likely to yield to pressure for aggressive rate cuts [7][2]. - The market's perception of the Federal Reserve's independence is crucial, as any perceived interference from the White House could reignite concerns about US policy-making, which previously weakened the dollar [7][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investor Behavior - The dollar has rebounded 2.5% from its low in September, partly due to the failure of predictions that the trade war would lead to a recession in the US [8]. - Despite the potential for a tech-driven economic boost in the US, analysts warn that even if US stocks continue to rise, it may not support the dollar due to foreign investors hedging their dollar exposure [5][8]. - The structural reassessment of unhedged dollar exposure by global investors, particularly from Europe, has contributed to downward pressure on the dollar [5][8].