Here's what to expect for commercial real estate in 2026

Core Insights - The commercial real estate (CRE) outlook for 2026 is shaped by a slower-than-expected economy, rising unemployment, and a pause in construction across most sectors [3][10] - Despite challenges, there is a growing optimism in the CRE sector, with capital beginning to flow again and interest rates decreasing [11][17] General Investment - Various reports indicate a "new equilibrium" in the CRE market, with terms like "firmer fundamentals" and "ongoing recovery" being used [5] - A Deloitte survey shows that 83% of global executives expect revenue improvement by the end of 2026, down from 88% the previous year, with 68% anticipating higher expenses [6][7] Capital Markets - Colliers predicts a 15% to 20% increase in sales volume in 2026 as institutional and cross-border capital reenters the market [15] - CoStar reports a 40% year-over-year increase in third-quarter sales volume, with banks easing back into commercial real estate lending [16][17] Specific Sectors - The office market is believed to have bottomed, with vacancy rates expected to drop below 18% as tenants return [19] - Industrial construction has decreased by 63% since 2022, but net absorption is projected to rise to 220 million square feet due to reshoring and data center demand [21] - Retail is shifting towards smaller footprints, with the average retail lease falling below 3,500 square feet for the first time since 2016 [23] - Multifamily rents are easing due to a record level of new supply, although multifamily has led investment sales volume since 2015 [25] - Data centers are experiencing high demand, with 100% of new construction in nine major markets already pre-leased, but face financing and local political challenges [26][27] REITs - Public-to-private REIT transactions and portfolio mergers are expected to dominate as listed valuations lag behind private market pricing [28] - REIT stocks, which underperformed in 2025, may outperform in 2026 due to a divergence between stock market valuations and REIT valuations [29][30]