Nan Fang Du Shi Bao·2025-12-30 15:44Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment towards Pop Mart is increasingly bearish, with a significant rise in short-selling activity and a notable decline in the resale prices of its core IP product, LABUBU [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Short Selling - From December 2 to December 8, the number of shares sold short increased from 1.11 million to 5.39 million, and the short-selling amount rose from 241 million HKD to 1.09 billion HKD [2]. - On December 30, the short-selling amount for Pop Mart reached 458 million HKD, with 2.39 million shares sold short [2]. Group 2: LABUBU Product Performance - LABUBU, a core character of Pop Mart's THE MONSTERS family, generated revenue of 3.04 billion CNY in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 726.6% [3]. - The average transaction price for LABUBU products on second-hand platforms has decreased, with some styles selling below the official price [5]. - Recent data shows that the average transaction price for LABUBU on Xianyu platform was 83.5 CNY, with 68% of users expecting further price declines [5]. Group 3: Stock Performance and Market Capitalization - On December 30, Pop Mart's stock closed at 190.8 HKD per share, down 4.55%, with a total market capitalization of 256.23 billion HKD [4]. - Since reaching a peak in August, Pop Mart's stock has declined over 40%, resulting in a market value loss exceeding 200 billion HKD [4]. Group 4: Industry Analysis and Future Outlook - Analysts indicate that the decline in secondary market prices undermines the speculative value of collectible toys, leading to a shift from buying to selling among consumers and resellers [8]. - Deutsche Bank's report suggests that Pop Mart is gambling on short-term revenue growth at the expense of long-term brand value by increasing production capacity from 10 million units per month to 50 million units [8]. - The company is advised to diversify its IP strategy and create a content system rather than relying solely on LABUBU [10].