Oil Steadies as Geopolitical Risks Counter Oversupply Outlook

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are stabilizing as traders assess geopolitical tensions alongside concerns of a global supply surplus [1][3]. Geopolitical Factors - The United Arab Emirates plans to withdraw forces from Yemen amid rising tensions with Saudi Arabia, which could impact oil dynamics in the region [2]. - President Trump's efforts to end the war in Ukraine face new challenges as Russia's President Putin indicates a shift in negotiation strategy [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current supply levels despite evidence of a global oil surplus, as indicated by rising oil stocks and idle tankers [3]. - The U.S. crude stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub experienced the largest weekly increase since late October, reflecting a broader trend of rising gasoline and distillate holdings nationwide [5]. Venezuela's Oil Production - Venezuela is facing production challenges due to a U.S. blockade, leading to well shutdowns and increased local storage, which poses risks to the country's economy [4].