欧盟汽车政策利好推动铂金创39年来最大月度涨幅

Core Viewpoint - Platinum prices have experienced the strongest monthly increase in nearly 40 years due to the EU's reversal of the 2035 ban on fuel vehicles, ongoing supply shortages, and rising demand for precious metals investment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Platinum and palladium are used in automotive exhaust purification catalysts, with prices significantly surging this year despite the long-term bearish outlook from the rise of electric vehicles [1][2]. - The EU's new policy is seen as a "booster" for platinum group metals, extending their application cycle in automotive catalysts by indefinitely relaxing the fuel vehicle ban and tightening emissions standards [1][2]. - As of December, platinum has risen 33% so far, marking the largest monthly increase since 1986, with a peak price of $2,478.50 per ounce and an expected annual increase of 146%, setting a new record [1][2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Regulatory Factors - The inclusion of platinum and palladium in the U.S. critical minerals list has led to a tightening of regional physical market supplies, prompting companies to stockpile these metals defensively, which has further driven up prices [3]. - The market anticipates that details of U.S. policy will be clarified in January, which could impact supply and pricing dynamics [3]. - China's recent launch of platinum group metal futures contracts has attracted significant speculative capital, leading to adjustments in trading limits at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [3][4]. Group 3: China's Market Influence - As the world's second-largest economy and the largest consumer of platinum group metals, China heavily relies on imports of these metals, and the newly launched futures contracts serve as the first domestic price hedging tool [4]. - Analysts suggest that if China's demand for spot imports remains high, the key test for platinum group metal prices may occur after the U.S. policy is implemented [4].