6万亿置换债发行收官 明年重在城投化债

Core Insights - The issuance of local government special bonds and replacement bonds will commence on January 5, 2026, with Shandong Province planning to issue 24.609 billion yuan for refinancing existing hidden debts [1] - A total of 6 trillion yuan in replacement bonds is expected to be fully issued, marking a significant phase in the replacement of hidden debts, although local debt management efforts will continue [1][2] - The focus of local debt management is shifting from debt replacement to establishing long-term mechanisms, with an emphasis on the market-oriented transformation of local government financing platforms [3] Group 1: Debt Replacement and Management - The issuance of 2 trillion yuan in replacement bonds, along with special local government bonds for debt management, will alleviate the immediate debt pressure on local governments and reduce interest expenses, potentially saving around 400 billion yuan in interest payments [2] - Experts suggest that the local debt management strategy will transition from primarily replacing debts to building sustainable mechanisms, with a target to eliminate hidden debts by 2028 [3] - The central economic work conference has called for optimizing debt restructuring and replacement methods to mitigate risks associated with operational debts of local government financing platforms [4] Group 2: Market Transformation of Financing Platforms - The reform and transformation of local government financing platforms (城投公司) have accelerated, with 362 companies publicly announcing their exit from government financing roles as of December 30, 2025 [4] - The key to managing operational debts lies in the "exit from the list" process, which will determine whether the remaining financial debts of these companies will still be classified as operational debts [4] - Future debt management will rely heavily on special bonds, with the Ministry of Finance allocating 800 billion yuan annually from new local government special bonds for debt management until 2028 [3] Group 3: Risk Prevention and Control - The establishment of a dedicated Debt Management Department within the Ministry of Finance aims to centralize the management of government debts, enhancing coordination and resource allocation [7] - The department will focus on preventing and mitigating hidden debt risks, addressing issues such as underreporting and illegal activities related to hidden debts [7] - The goal is to create a comprehensive debt risk prevention system that ensures the rational use of government debt funds while avoiding systemic risks [7]