Marathon(US:MARA) Benzinga·2025-12-30 21:32Core Viewpoint - MARA Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:MARA) has experienced significant volatility, with a notable rally in the second half of 2025 followed by a sharp decline of approximately 60% from mid-October onward, making it an intriguing candidate for contrarian investment strategies [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Performance - The blockchain market is currently struggling, impacting crypto-adjacent enterprises like MARA, which are facing challenges amid fears of a bubble in artificial intelligence [5]. - In the last 10 weeks, MARA stock has only recorded three weeks of gains, indicating a downward trend [6]. - Historical data shows that during similar patterns, MARA stock tends to exhibit reflexive behavior, potentially leading to a perception of undervaluation among investors [6]. Group 2: Quantitative Analysis - An analysis of MARA's historical performance reveals a quant pattern labeled as 3-7-D (three up weeks, seven down weeks), which could indicate a structural arbitrage opportunity [7]. - Typically, MARA stock has ranged between $9.02 and $9.62 over most 10-week periods since January 2019, with a probability density peak around $9.32, suggesting a negative bias [8]. - The current quantitative signal suggests that forward 10-week returns could range between $8.50 and $10.50, with a peak probability density at approximately $9.65, indicating a potential mispricing compared to Wall Street's expectations [9]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - The expected terminal value of MARA stock is around $9.65, but there is a potential for it to close a 3.63% gap to the $10 price point, which is statistically significant given the stock's volatility [10][15]. - A proposed trading strategy involves a 9/10 bull call spread expiring on February 20, 2026, with a net debit of $50, allowing for speculation on MARA stock rising above the $10 strike price at expiration, potentially yielding a 100% profit [17].