美联储会议纪要：多数官员支持进一步降息，但政策路径分歧显著

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions, with a 9-3 vote for a 25 basis point rate cut, the highest dissent since 2019 [1] - Some officials expressed that the decision to lower rates was delicate, with some indicating they could have supported maintaining the current rate [1] - The uncertainty surrounding inflation and employment data due to a government shutdown has complicated decision-making, with more data expected before the January meeting [1] Group 2 - The minutes indicate a split on the 2026 rate cut expectations, with most participants believing further cuts may be appropriate if inflation decreases as anticipated [2] - Some officials suggested maintaining the target range for a period after the recent cut, reflecting differing economic outlooks [2] - The average expectation among 19 officials is for a 25 basis point cut in 2026, followed by another cut in 2027, bringing the rate close to 3% [2] Group 3 - The minutes highlight a debate on whether inflation or unemployment poses a greater risk to the economy, with most participants favoring a neutral policy stance to prevent labor market deterioration [3] - Concerns were raised about the risks of high and persistent inflation, suggesting that further rate cuts could be misinterpreted as a weakening commitment to the 2% inflation target [3] - Recommendations were made for maintaining a high pace of net purchases of short-term Treasury securities to avoid a drop in reserves below the "ample range" [3] Group 4 - The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for January 27-28, where more economic data will be available and the nomination for the next Fed chair is likely to be announced [4]