美联储会议纪要曝光内部分歧：降息共识脆弱 政策路径待数据指引

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%–3.75%, despite significant internal disagreements regarding the timing and extent of future rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Decision and Internal Disagreements - The FOMC voted 9 to 3 in favor of the rate cut, indicating a cautious approach among members, with some suggesting that maintaining the current rate could also be justified [1]. - Three dissenting votes came from Stephen Miran, who advocated for a larger cut of 50 basis points, and two others who preferred to keep rates unchanged [1]. - Among the 19 policymakers, 6 expressed reservations about the rate cut, suggesting that rates should remain at 3.75%–4.00% by the end of the year, reflecting a split in the committee's assessment of current monetary policy [1]. Group 2: Future Rate Predictions and Economic Indicators - Some committee members believe it may be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for a period following the rate cut, aligning with broader predictions [2]. - The median rate forecast indicates a potential 25 basis point cut in 2026, but individual predictions vary widely, with the market expecting at least two rate cuts in the coming year [2]. - Key concerns highlighted include the need to transition to a more neutral policy stance to prevent severe labor market deterioration, while also addressing the risk of entrenched high inflation [2]. Group 3: Economic Data and Market Reactions - Recent economic data shows a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, while consumer price increases were below expectations, and GDP growth reached an annualized rate of 4.3%, the highest in two years [2]. - Following the release of the minutes, market pricing for federal funds futures indicated a slight decrease in the probability of a rate cut in January 2026 to about 15%, reinforcing expectations that rates may remain unchanged at that meeting [3].