白银暴跌之后又暴涨，贵金属上涨潮卷土重来

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in silver prices have been extreme, characterized by significant drops followed by rapid recoveries, with silver prices rising above $74 per ounce after a notable decline [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver prices experienced a dramatic drop of 9% in the previous trading session, attributed to increased margin requirements and technical indicators signaling an overheated market [1] - Analysts suggest that the recent sell-off was primarily driven by technical factors, including profit-taking after a rapid increase in precious metals prices and forced deleveraging among leveraged long positions [1] - The structural conditions supporting the recent price increase, such as a weaker dollar and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, remain intact, indicating potential for renewed buying interest [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Tony Sycamore from Sydney IG noted that the initial surge in silver prices was likely triggered by stop-loss orders, price volatility, panic buying, and increased margin requirements from the CME, but lacked sustained buying momentum at high levels [2] - Despite the recent cooling in precious metals, the overall trend may not be over, as supply gaps, stockpiling by countries, and export restrictions persist [2] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Russia and Ukraine, have intensified, impacting the outlook for peace agreements and contributing to market volatility [3] - Some exchanges have raised margin requirements for COMEX silver futures, forcing some speculators to reduce positions or liquidate holdings due to the inability to meet additional margin calls [3] - Despite recent pullbacks, gold and silver are on track for their strongest annual performance since 1979, supported by strong central bank purchases, continued inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Reports indicate that the current rise in silver prices is being shaped by real physical shortages, with factors such as supply restrictions driven by policy and increased inventory concentration playing a significant role in price determination [3]