多因素助推铜价迭创历史新高 股期标的同步飙升

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a significant price surge, with LME three-month copper prices rising over 40% and reaching a historical high of $12,960 per ton, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Price Performance - Since late November 2025, copper prices have accelerated, with LME three-month copper hitting a record high of $12,960 per ton on December 29 [2]. - The Shanghai copper futures also saw a significant increase, surpassing 100,000 yuan per ton and peaking at 102,660 yuan per ton [2]. - The non-ferrous metal sector has become a popular investment area, with the industry index rising over 92% in 2025, and leading companies like Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper seeing stock price increases of over 125% and 153%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Analysts indicate that the tight supply of copper concentrate is a core driver of rising copper prices, exacerbated by U.S. tariff policies affecting price volatility and inventory levels [3][4]. - The demand for copper is expected to remain robust due to significant growth in AI data centers and global energy infrastructure, which is anticipated to offset declines in other sectors like real estate [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Institutions are optimistic about copper prices in 2026, predicting that the Fed's interest rate cuts and ongoing de-dollarization trends will support prices [6]. - The expected core trading range for Shanghai copper futures in 2026 is projected to be between 83,000 yuan per ton and 130,000 yuan per ton, while LME three-month copper is expected to range from $10,300 to $16,000 per ton [6]. - Key factors influencing copper prices include the commodity's monetary attributes, supply constraints, and structural demand growth driven by technological advancements and energy transitions [6][7].