雁默：2025年的台海局势，是“退潮浪更高”的起点

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the geopolitical shifts following Trump's return to power, emphasizing the strategic retreat of the U.S. and its implications for Taiwan and its relations with China and other countries. It highlights the increasing isolation of Taiwan and the need for it to adapt to a changing global landscape, where traditional alliances are being tested and redefined [1][5][24]. Group 1: U.S.-Taiwan Relations - Trump's administration is characterized by a strategic retreat, focusing on regional interests and distancing from traditional allies, which includes a potential abandonment of Taiwan [5][24]. - The U.S. has not yet defined tariff rates for Taiwan, indicating a complex relationship where Taiwan is seen as a bargaining chip rather than a partner [5][6]. - The U.S. is likely to maintain its support for Taiwan until it has fully extracted value from the relationship, suggesting a transactional approach to Taiwan's security [5][6][24]. Group 2: Taiwan's Domestic Politics - Taiwan's internal political landscape is marked by a failed recall election, reflecting a shift in public sentiment against the ruling party's approach to China [19][20]. - The rise of "Chinese identity" among certain voter segments indicates a potential shift in Taiwan's political dynamics, although it remains limited to specific groups [19][20]. - The current administration's focus on "value diplomacy" has not yielded significant results, leading to increased diplomatic efforts to maintain international support [8][19]. Group 3: Regional Dynamics - The article notes an increase in diplomatic activities by Taiwan's "Ministry of Foreign Affairs," indicating a proactive approach to securing international alliances despite U.S. strategic shifts [8][11]. - Countries in the region, including Vietnam and Japan, are increasingly engaging with Taiwan, reflecting a collective concern over stability in the Taiwan Strait [13][25]. - The article suggests that as the U.S. retreats, smaller nations are likely to band together, which could complicate Taiwan's position and its quest for international recognition [25][26]. Group 4: Military and Strategic Considerations - The article highlights the increasing military presence and activities in the Taiwan Strait, with multiple countries conducting naval operations, which may signal a shift in regional security dynamics [14][15]. - The notion of "peaceful passage" through the Taiwan Strait is discussed, emphasizing the legal and political implications of military movements in the area [14][15]. - The potential for increased military cooperation among regional players is noted, as countries seek to bolster their defenses in light of perceived threats from both China and the U.S. [18][25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The year 2025 is identified as a pivotal moment for Taiwan, with expectations of significant geopolitical changes that could impact its status and relations with both the U.S. and China [26][24]. - The article posits that the current trajectory suggests a move away from maintaining the status quo, with increasing pressures for Taiwan to adapt to a new reality [26][24]. - The potential for a more aggressive stance from China is anticipated, as regional dynamics evolve and the U.S. reassesses its commitments [26][24].