九万里：解局2025

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant global changes and geopolitical dynamics expected by 2025, highlighting the interplay of major powers, ongoing conflicts, and the evolving international order [1][3]. Geopolitical Dynamics - The relationship between the U.S. and China is characterized by intense competition and negotiation, with high-level interactions aimed at stabilizing their relationship amidst ongoing tensions [3][5]. - U.S.-Russia relations remain strained despite attempts at dialogue, with no substantial improvement observed in their bilateral ties [5][6]. - The U.S. and Europe are experiencing a deterioration in their alliance, marked by increasing ideological opposition and policy disagreements [6][7]. Conflict and Warfare - The global peace index has declined by 0.36%, with military expenditures rising to approximately $2.72 trillion, accounting for 2.5% of global GDP [7]. - Ongoing armed conflicts have reached a record high, with 59 active conflicts involving 78 countries, the highest since World War II [7][8]. - The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to evolve with fluctuating hopes for resolution, while the Israel-Palestine conflict escalates with significant military actions and international backlash [9][10]. Regional Developments - In the Asia-Pacific region, U.S. strategies are causing divisions among ASEAN countries, complicating regional cooperation [12][13]. - The Middle East is witnessing increased instability, with Israel's aggressive military actions leading to a backlash from Arab nations and a potential shift in regional alliances [14]. - Latin America is experiencing a shift towards more aggressive U.S. policies under Trump, impacting regional dynamics and sovereignty [15]. Governance and Political Landscape - The global governance landscape is under pressure, with rising populism and right-wing movements affecting political stability in various regions, including Europe and Latin America [16][18]. - The article notes a significant political shift in Latin America, with right-wing parties gaining ground as leftist movements decline [18]. - The governance challenges faced by countries are becoming more pronounced, with economic and political instability affecting their ability to respond to global issues [16][19]. Global Governance Initiatives - China is proposing new governance frameworks to address global challenges, emphasizing cooperation and mutual benefit among nations [21][22]. - The article highlights the increasing influence of global South countries in shaping governance discussions, marking a shift in the traditional power dynamics [24].