光伏组件退役潮即将启幕 千亿回收市场有待破局

Core Insights - The photovoltaic (PV) recycling market in China is expected to grow significantly due to the impending wave of PV component retirements, with estimates suggesting that by 2040, the total retired volume could exceed 20 million tons, leading to a market size of over 100 billion yuan [1][2][12] - Despite the promising market potential, the PV recycling industry faces multiple challenges, including insufficient retired volumes, high costs, and a lack of industry standards, necessitating collaboration among government, industry, and enterprises to overcome these bottlenecks [1][10] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of November this year, China's solar power installed capacity reached 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 41.9%, maintaining its position as the world's largest market [2] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that starting in 2025, a large number of PV components will begin to retire, with an estimated waste volume of approximately 140,000 tons by 2030 and a cumulative waste volume of 20 million tons by 2040 [2][3] - The recycling market is projected to reach a cumulative market size of 26 billion yuan by 2030 and exceed 420 billion yuan by 2050 [2] Group 2: Challenges in Recycling - The current recycling industry is characterized by a disparity between theoretical retirement scales and actual market conditions, primarily due to economic considerations and systemic barriers [4][5] - The recycling capacity of private enterprises often exceeds the actual retired volume, leading to underutilization of resources [5] - The presence of unregulated small workshops and cross-industry competitors exacerbates market chaos, with some entities engaging in environmentally harmful practices to lower costs [6][8] Group 3: Industry Responses - Both state-owned and private enterprises are actively investing in technology development and production line construction to prepare for the upcoming retirement peak [7] - Major state-owned enterprises are focusing on technological advancements and resource integration, with some already establishing pilot recycling lines [7][8] - Industry experts emphasize the need for improved collaboration and standardization to ensure sustainable development in the recycling sector [10][11] Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry insiders express optimism about the future of the PV recycling market, anticipating continued growth as the volume of retired PV equipment increases [12] - Successful resource utilization of retired PV devices is seen as crucial for the sustainable development of the renewable energy sector in China, which has the potential to become a global leader in the circular economy for photovoltaics [12]