Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates was not based on a broad consensus among officials, indicating a divergence of opinions regarding the necessity and timing of the rate cut [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) agreed to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5% to 3.75% after a comprehensive assessment of economic risks [2]. - Six officials opposed the rate cut, including two voting members, primarily due to differing views on inflation progress [2]. - Some officials supporting the cut cited slowing job growth and rising unemployment as indicators of increasing downside risks in the labor market, viewing the rate cut as a proactive risk management measure [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Certain officials expressed caution regarding inflation, noting that progress towards the 2% inflation target has stalled, with inflation likely to remain relatively high in the short term [2][5]. - There is a consensus that further rate cuts could be reasonable if inflation decreases as expected, but this is contingent on new data [3]. Group 3: Reserve Levels and Future Actions - The Fed has determined that bank reserves have shifted from "ample" to "adequate," prompting the initiation of short-term U.S. Treasury purchases to maintain smooth interest rate control [4]. - The first round of purchases is set at approximately $40 billion, with flexibility in scale and pace based on market conditions [4]. - Economic growth is expected to accelerate by 2026, supported by fiscal and regulatory policy changes, although uncertainty remains regarding actual growth predictions [4]. Group 4: Upcoming Meetings - The next Federal Reserve policy meeting is scheduled for January 27-28, with market expectations leaning towards maintaining the current benchmark interest rate [6].
降息并非共识！三张反对票背后的美联储分歧，美联储12月会议纪要揭晓
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-12-31 00:31