光伏组件退役潮即将启幕，千亿回收市场有待破局

Core Insights - The photovoltaic (PV) industry in China is facing a significant wave of component retirements starting from 2025, with estimates suggesting that by 2040, the total retired volume could exceed 20 million tons, creating a recycling market worth over 100 billion yuan [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of November this year, China's solar power installed capacity reached 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 41.9%, maintaining its position as the world's largest market [2] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that by 2030, the volume of discarded PV components will peak at approximately 1.4 million tons, with a cumulative waste volume of 20 million tons by 2040 [2] - The recycling market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a cumulative market size of 26 billion yuan by 2030 and over 420 billion yuan by 2050 [2] Group 2: Challenges in Recycling - The current recycling industry is facing multiple bottlenecks, including insufficient retired volumes, high costs, and a lack of industry standards [1][5] - The disparity between theoretical retirement scales and actual market conditions is attributed to economic considerations and systemic barriers [4][5] - The recycling industry is characterized by a chaotic market environment, with private enterprises facing idle capacities due to insufficient retired components [5][6] Group 3: Technological and Economic Considerations - The recycling process is hindered by high costs and the need for significant investment in research and development, with mid-stage line development requiring hundreds of millions of yuan [6][8] - Current recycling practices are often inefficient, with some companies opting for superficial dismantling rather than comprehensive recycling, raising compliance concerns [6][8] Group 4: Industry Participation and Collaboration - Both state-owned and private enterprises are actively investing in the recycling sector, focusing on technological development and production line construction [7][10] - Major state-owned enterprises are developing recycling capabilities, with projects like the 30 MW recycling pilot line by the State Power Investment Corporation [7][8] - Industry experts emphasize the need for collaboration among government, industry, and enterprises to overcome existing challenges and promote sustainable development [10][12] Group 5: Future Outlook - The industry outlook remains optimistic, with expectations that the recycling market will expand as the volume of retired PV equipment increases [12] - Successful policy implementation and market mechanisms are crucial for achieving resource utilization of retired PV equipment, positioning China as a potential global leader in the photovoltaic circular economy [12]