Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-12-31 01:27Core Viewpoint - The chief macroeconomic analyst at CITIC Securities, Zhou Junzhi, predicts that copper may experience a historic surge in 2026, driven by macroeconomic narratives and the copper-gold ratio [1] Group 1: Copper Price Trends - The supply-demand balance can effectively explain and indicate the trend of copper prices, but it does not address the odds question for 2026 [1] - The odds for copper in 2026 are linked to the "copper-gold ratio," which is currently at a historical low despite both copper and gold reaching new highs this year [1] Group 2: Historical Context and Predictions - The copper-gold ratio is used to assess the odds for copper prices in 2026, as historical methods have failed in recent years, particularly regarding global inflation and the Chinese real estate market [1] - Gold prices have surged over 70% year-on-year in 2025, marking the second-highest increase since the 1960s, which is expected to influence copper prices positively [1] Group 3: Macro Narratives Influencing Copper Prices - Three macro narratives are identified as catalysts for the historic rise in gold prices this year, which are anticipated to also drive copper prices up in 2026: 1. Sacrificing independence for monetary easing by the Federal Reserve 2. Technological advancements leading to a new industrial cycle 3. Restructuring of global supply chains due to trade wars [1]