华泰期货：假期临近，碳酸锂热情降温

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and inventory levels, influenced by trading sentiment and upcoming adjustments in trading regulations [2][3][4]. Price and Trading Data - On December 30, 2025, the main lithium carbonate futures contract opened at 117,000 CNY/ton and closed at 121,580 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 3.77% from the previous settlement price [2][8]. - The trading volume for the day was 459,530 contracts, with an open interest of 511,309 contracts, slightly down from 512,345 contracts the previous day [2][8]. - The current basis is reported at -1,960 CNY/ton, indicating the difference between the spot price and futures price [2]. Spot Prices - According to SMM data, battery-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 114,000 and 122,000 CNY/ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 112,000 and 118,000 CNY/ton, with no change from the previous day [3][9]. - The price of 6% lithium concentrate is reported at 1,550 USD/ton, down by 15 USD from the previous day [3][9]. Inventory Levels - Current spot inventory stands at 109,773 tons, a decrease of 652 tons from the previous period [4][10]. - Smelter inventory is at 17,851 tons, down by 239 tons, while downstream inventory is at 39,892 tons, down by 1,593 tons; other inventory has increased by 1,180 tons to 52,030 tons [4][10]. Market Sentiment and Strategy - The current price is primarily driven by market sentiment, with signs of excessive speculation present [5][11]. - Inventory depletion is slowing, leading to a divergence between spot and futures markets, and there is a need to be cautious of potential price corrections [5][11]. - The strategy suggests short-term range trading, focusing on consumption and inventory turning points, with recommendations to sell high for hedging purposes [5][11].