Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-12-31 01:42Core Viewpoint - The emergence of AI Agent smartphones is set to revolutionize the mobile industry by 2026, with significant advancements in technology and collaboration among major players [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The collaboration between Doubao and ZTE has led to the launch of the Doubao AI smartphone (Nubia M153), prompting other manufacturers to accelerate their AI Agent smartphone development [2][3]. - Major companies like ByteDance are reportedly pursuing partnerships with leading hardware manufacturers such as Vivo, Lenovo, and Transsion to develop AI smartphones [3]. - The "Big Model Six Little Tigers," including Zhiyu, have announced the open-sourcing of their core AI Agent model AutoGLM, which is expected to boost the development of AI Agent smartphones [3]. Group 2: Development Paths - The industry is divided into two distinct paths: the "radical faction" represented by Doubao AI smartphones, which utilize high-permission integration, and the "conservative faction" represented by companies like Huawei, which adopt a more cautious approach through API interfaces [4]. - Leading smartphone manufacturers like Vivo and Huawei, which shipped over 40 million units last year, are more likely to treat AI as a feature rather than a foundational element due to the high costs associated with system-level changes [4]. Group 3: Challenges and Concerns - The development of AI Agent smartphones raises concerns regarding user privacy and security, as the ability to control applications without direct user interaction could threaten the interests of existing app platforms [5][6]. - Major applications, including WeChat and Taobao, have begun to block the Doubao AI assistant due to security concerns, highlighting the risks associated with granting extensive permissions to AI applications [5][6]. - The relationship between intelligence and permissions is described as a "seesaw," where increased permissions can enhance AI capabilities but also pose significant privacy risks [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts predict that 2026 could mark the "mass production year" for AI Agent smartphones, contingent upon meeting specific technological and cost criteria [8]. - Key conditions for achieving this milestone include the performance of system-on-chip (SoC) NPU exceeding 40 TOPS, the production of 12nm RF amplifiers, and the availability of cost-effective memory modules [8]. - The successful transition from "demo" to "cash flow" for AI smartphones will require overcoming regulatory, cost, and value challenges, including establishing a clear permissions framework and demonstrating compelling use cases for consumers [8][9].