年内重挫近20%！国际油价或创疫情来最差年度表现 供应过剩阴云笼罩新年市场

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices are experiencing their most severe annual decline since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, primarily driven by ongoing concerns about oversupply in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - WTI crude oil futures fell below $58 per barrel, marking a fifth consecutive month of decline, with an annual drop nearing 20% [1]. - Brent crude oil futures for March delivery closed above $61 per barrel, indicating a focus on upcoming OPEC+ meetings and geopolitical tensions [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC+ and its competitors have been increasing supply throughout the year, coupled with a slowdown in global oil demand growth, leading to significant price drops [4]. - Major institutions, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), predict a substantial oversupply in the oil market next year, with even OPEC's own forecasts indicating a slight oversupply [4]. Group 3: Upcoming Events - OPEC+ is scheduled to hold a video meeting on January 4, where it is likely that member countries will maintain their current policy of pausing further production increases due to evident oversupply [4]. - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 1.7 million barrel increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, which, if confirmed, would represent the largest weekly increase since mid-November [4]. Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - The UAE announced a withdrawal of troops from Yemen, following tensions with Saudi Arabia over military actions in the region, both of which are key OPEC members [4]. - Traders are closely monitoring U.S. measures to partially block Venezuelan oil exports, with speculation about the extent of pressure the U.S. government may apply on the Maduro regime [4][5].