2025年12月钢铁PMI显示：市场供需两端明显下降 行业淡季特征进一步显现

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with both supply and demand contracting, leading to a continued weak market outlook for January 2026 [1][2][12]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The steel industry PMI for December 2025 is reported at 46.3%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points month-on-month, indicating ongoing contraction in industry operations [1]. - The production index for the steel industry is at 43.7%, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a continued reduction in production activities [5]. - Key steel enterprises reported an average daily crude steel output of 186.9 million tons in early December, a 3% decrease from the previous month [5]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The demand side remains weak, with the new orders index at 45.4%, down 3.5 percentage points, indicating five consecutive months of contraction [3]. - Real estate development investment has decreased by 15.9% year-on-year, contributing to a slowdown in domestic steel demand [3]. - Export pressures are increasing, with the new export orders index at 41.1%, down 6.1 percentage points, marking two months of significant decline [3]. Group 3: Price Trends - Steel prices have shown a slight recovery, with the Shanghai rebar price index rising from 3194 yuan/ton on December 1 to 3215 yuan/ton by December 25 [9]. - Raw material prices have generally declined, with the purchasing price index dropping to 30.6%, indicating a significant reduction in cost pressures for steel production [8]. - The overall market for raw materials is weak, with iron ore prices declining due to reduced procurement needs from steel mills [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The steel industry is expected to maintain a weak demand outlook in January 2026, influenced by seasonal factors and ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [12][14]. - The anticipated impact of the Spring Festival and continued environmental production restrictions will further suppress production and demand [13][14]. - Despite some potential support from infrastructure projects, the overall demand for steel is likely to remain subdued due to multiple constraining factors [12].