股指期货：结构性主题行情为主 股指高位震荡

Market Situation - A-shares opened lower on Tuesday but rallied in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.0% at 3965.12 points. The Shenzhen Component rose by 0.49%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.63% [1] - Among individual stocks, 1840 rose (66 hitting the daily limit), while 3481 fell (19 hitting the lower limit). Notable gainers included Shuangxin Environmental Protection (+187.30%), N Qiangyi (+165.61%), and Yufan Technology (+124.36%). Major losers were *ST Dongtong (-59.27%), Guangdao Tui (-29.49%), and *ST Tianlong (-19.96%) [1] - The energy sector performed well, with oil and gas, automotive parts, and petrochemicals rising by 3.07%, 2.44%, and 1.96% respectively. Conversely, high-dividend sectors saw a collective decline, with power generation equipment, retail, and education down by 2.02%, 1.85%, and 1.75% respectively [1] Futures Market - The four major index futures contracts mostly rose, with IF2603 and IC2603 increasing by 0.36% and 0.59% respectively, while IH2603 fell by 0.03% and IM2603 rose by 0.24%. The basis for these contracts showed some recovery [2] News - The 2026 national subsidy plan was officially released, with the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announcing a first batch of 625 billion yuan to support the replacement of old consumer goods. New products eligible for subsidies include smart glasses and smart home devices, while categories like home decoration and electric bicycles were removed [3] - For new car purchases, subsidies will be 12% or 10% of the car price, with a cap of 20,000 yuan or 15,000 yuan continuing from 2025 standards. The scope of household appliance subsidies has been narrowed to six categories, with the subsidy rate for first-level energy-efficient appliances reduced from 20% to 15% and the maximum subsidy per appliance decreased from 2000 yuan to 1500 yuan [3] - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes indicated a consensus on the need for interest rate cuts, although there were significant disagreements among officials regarding the timing and extent of future rate adjustments [3] Capital Market - On December 30, the A-share market maintained stable trading volume with a total turnover of 2.14 trillion yuan. Northbound capital transactions amounted to 2380.18 billion yuan. The central bank conducted a 3125 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with 593 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 2532 billion yuan for the day [4] Operational Suggestions - With short-term negative factors dissipating, indices have rebounded consecutively, and broad-based ETFs have shown significant inflows. The current volatility is on the rise, and the renminbi exchange rate has notably increased, suggesting core assets may trend upward. However, there may be short-term fluctuations due to potential capital withdrawals before the holiday, recommending the continued holding of bull spread combinations and a small amount of selling near-month out-of-the-money call options for hedging [5]