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Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations, influenced by international oil prices, divergent monetary policies, and geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Currency Fluctuations - The USD/CAD exchange rate closed at 1.3696, with a slight increase of 0.09%, and reached a peak of 1.3700 during the day [1] - The Canadian dollar, as a commodity currency, is highly correlated with oil prices, which have stabilized around $57.80 per barrel [1] - Geopolitical risks, including conflicts in Venezuela and Ukraine, are providing support for the Canadian dollar [1] Group 2: Oil Prices and Economic Indicators - WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.6% the previous day, but there are concerns about OPEC+ increasing production, which could lead to a decline in oil prices and weaken support for the Canadian dollar [1] - The Canadian economy shows positive indicators with a November CPI of 2.2%, an addition of 53,000 jobs, and a GDP growth of 2.6% in Q3, supporting the Canadian dollar [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve has cumulatively cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2025, with expectations for continued easing in 2026, which diminishes the dollar's interest rate advantage [1] - The Canadian central bank has maintained a benchmark interest rate of 2.25%, with a cautious neutral tone, and there are market expectations for a potential rate cut in Q1 2026 [1] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The exchange rate is in a high-level consolidation phase, trading within the range of 1.3620 to 1.3800, with the 50-day moving average providing medium-term support [2] - Key support levels are identified at 1.3650 to 1.3620, with potential declines to 1.3550 to 1.3580 if these levels are breached [2] - Resistance levels are noted at 1.3720 and 1.3800, with analysts suggesting that the exchange rate may continue to oscillate within this range [2]