澳元站稳0.67关口加息预期

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has strengthened significantly, reaching a 14-month high against the US dollar (USD) due to a combination of hawkish signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), expectations of US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, and favorable commodity prices driven by China's recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - As of December 31, 2025, the AUD/USD exchange rate reached 0.6700, reflecting a daily increase of 0.12% and an annual rise of over 7% since the low of 0.6420 in mid-November [1]. - Australia's inflation rate in October was reported at 3.8%, exceeding the RBA's target of 2%-3%, with December inflation expectations rising to 4.7% [1]. - Market pricing indicates a nearly 50% probability of an interest rate hike by March 2026, with mainstream forecasts suggesting a potential increase to 3.85% in the first meeting of the year [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The RBA's hawkish stance is a key driver of the AUD's strength, while the Fed's easing expectations have contributed to a decline in the USD index by over 10% for the year [1][2]. - The Fed has implemented three rate cuts since September 2025, with current rates at 3.50%-3.75%, and further cuts are anticipated next year [1]. - The AUD benefits from rising commodity prices and improved trade balances due to recovering exports of iron ore and coal, alongside positive expectations from China's targeted investment plans [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD has formed an upward trend from 0.6420, currently consolidating around 0.6700, with resistance at 0.6727 and support at 0.6650 [2]. - The MACD indicates that bullish momentum remains, although it is slowing, while the RSI (14) is at 66.4278, suggesting that the market is not yet overbought [2]. - Institutions are optimistic about the AUD's future, with target prices ranging from 0.72 to 0.92 USD, although risks such as global economic slowdown and trade tensions may limit gains [2].