Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the USD/CHF exchange rate is expected to remain weak, with a cumulative decline of over 10% in 2025 and a potential further drop in 2026 [1] - Divergence in monetary policy is a key driver for the downward trend, with the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 75 basis points in 2025 and a 73.3% probability of an additional 50 basis points cut in 2026, while the Swiss National Bank maintains a 0% interest rate [1] - The Swiss economy shows resilience with an expected growth rate slightly below 1.5% for the year, supported by a trade agreement that significantly reduces tariffs on U.S. exports to Switzerland [1] Group 2 - The technical outlook is bearish, with the exchange rate breaking below the 0.79 support level and the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish MACD structure [2] - Institutions have mixed short-term views, with Standard Chartered expecting a potential rebound to 0.8060, while UBS maintains a bearish outlook extending into the first half of 2026 [2] - Key short-term data to monitor includes the Federal Reserve minutes, U.S. non-farm payrolls, and Swiss CPI, while long-term focus should be on the USD/CHF interest rate differential and global risk sentiment [2]
瑞郎年内跌幅超10% 弱势格局延续至2026年
Jin Tou Wang·2025-12-31 02:33