瑞郎年内大跌弱势难改

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is expected to remain weak through 2026, influenced by the divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank, alongside the strengthening of the Swiss franc's safe-haven appeal and the impact of a recent trade agreement between the US and Switzerland [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - In 2025, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 75 basis points, bringing the rate down to 3.5%-3.75% in December, which diminished the attractiveness of the USD [1] - The Swiss National Bank maintained a stable interest rate of 0%, with the central bank leader indicating a high threshold for returning to negative rates, despite a drop in the November CPI to 0% [1] Group 2: Economic and Trade Factors - The Swiss economy showed resilience, with growth in manufacturing and services offsetting short-term GDP contraction, supporting policy stability [1] - A trade agreement signed in November 2025 between the US and Switzerland significantly reduced tariffs on Swiss goods, alleviating export concerns [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Market sentiment is increasingly leaning towards a bearish outlook for the USD/CHF pair, with institutions like Standard Chartered and UBS highlighting limited potential for sustained rebounds [2] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, with the exchange rate breaking below the 0.79 support level and forming a "bear flag" pattern, while the MACD is below the zero line [2]