东海期货：2026年豆粕投资策略报告

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the global soybean supply and demand for the 2025/26 season will present a generally loose supply and moderate destocking pattern, ending three consecutive years of inventory accumulation. Despite a reduction in U.S. production, the expected bumper harvest in South America supports a still loose global supply structure, with the stock-to-use ratio decreasing by 0.4 percentage points to 11.8% [2][19][70] - The key variables in the supply and demand balance for 2026 will focus on the realization of production in major producing countries and the restructuring of export flows [2][19][70] - For U.S. soybeans, the yield forecast for the 2025/26 season remains at 53 bushels per acre, with expectations for a downward adjustment of about 0.5 bushels per acre. If the demand forecast remains unchanged, U.S. soybean stocks may tighten to around 250 million bushels, potentially leading to a market performance similar to that of the first quarter of this year [2][25][70] Group 2 - In South America, Brazil's planting area for the 2025/26 season is steadily increasing, and the expectation of a bumper harvest continues. The latest NOAA forecast indicates that a weak La Niña will persist until December 2025 to February 2026, with a 61% probability of transitioning to neutral conditions between January and March 2026. The impact of a weak La Niña year on Brazil is relatively small, and it is expected that there will be little reversal of the bumper harvest expectations this year [2][19][54] - The risk of extreme drought impacting the South American soybean production season in 2025/26 is considered low, with only a 40%-50% probability of below-normal rainfall in major production areas during January-February 2026 [3][54] Group 3 - The 2025 soybean meal market review indicates that the tightening supply and demand expectations for U.S. soybeans at the beginning of 2025 led to a rebound in the CBOT soybean futures contract to a range of 1030-1080 cents per bushel. Trade policies became a key variable in March-April, with concerns over a 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans imposed by China leading to price declines [55][60] - The valuation analysis highlights that the core variables are the South American basis and U.S. soybean prices. The market's current structure for Brazil's soybean export quotes has fully priced in the "bumper harvest expectations," with expected CIF procurement averages for March, May, and July being 50-100 cents, 100-150 cents, and 150-200 cents per bushel, respectively [59][88] Group 4 - The domestic soybean meal market in the first quarter saw futures prices synchronize with CBOT soybean trends, with the main futures contract rebounding from 2620 yuan per ton to a range of 2800-3000 yuan per ton. In the second quarter, the domestic market diverged significantly from the U.S. market, with the main contract for soybean meal breaking through 3100 yuan per ton [60][65] - The overall market for soybean meal in 2025/2026 is expected to show a "wide fluctuation with a slight upward trend," driven by a globally loose supply base, rigid domestic demand, policy disturbances increasing volatility, and cost support limiting downside [48][60]